Πέμπτη 27 Μαρτίου 2014

Bank Regulations and Morale Hazard



Central Banks play an important role in monetary policy in their countries. If one traces their history it goes back to the era of the goldsmith, where paper money originated. In the United States, depositors left their gold at goldsmiths’ vaults, and in return, they received paper as a claim for their gold to redeem. This paper circulated as paper money and paper money was in effect in the United States until 1970’s, when the United States abandoned the gold system.

The Bank of England was created in 1694 as a monopoly, provided liquidity, because it required depositors to hold an amount of deposits, and could back out any bank. The Bank of England eventually became a government bank and independent. In the 1800’s, the United States past the National Banking Act, and required banks to keep deposits with the Treasury to back their currency. Eventually in 1913 the United States adopted the UK model, and created the Federal Reserve by an act of Congress.

The Federal Reserve required banks to keep deposits in currency in the event a bank faced a liquidity problem; hence the Federal Reserve became a lender of last resort. If banks wanted to borrow money, they would bring their securities to the FED as collateral.
The FED required the banks to hold a minimum amount of deposits on reserve, called the reserve requirement. The problem was that this was not enough since banks began to fail and were responsible for several financial crises. The first such failure created the banking crisis of 1929 with all the banks shutting down and created a bank run, and eventually the first recession in the US. To prevent from recurring the FED created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation as deposit insurance. It also controlled the money supply and interest rates.
The FED also created the Federal Open Market Committee, which decided rate at which banks borrowed overnight, called the Federal Funds Rate. It is an overnight interest rate on loans to bank members among themselves. This was a tool that stabilized the economy.

If one looks at the balance sheet of banks they have assets and liabilities. Liabilities are depositors money. So if one deposits money in the bank in cash, it not only becomes an asset for the bank, but also a liability. If depositors request their money the bank has to come up with the money. But can one imagine what would happen if ALL depositors charge at the same time in banks requesting their money? What would happen to liquidity of the financial system? And what causes such a bank run?
So banks are required to hold a percentage of their deposits in reserve, and as a way to attract this US FED offered them an interest rate. This was a tool to control the economy, since a rise in the reserve requirement would require banks to hold more on reserve, thus affect the money supply. Banks would require to keep more on reserve, thus lend less to businesses, thus shrink the money supply.
As for the interest rate charged for overnight borrowing between banks, called the Federal Funds rate, the US central Bank controls this by buying and selling Treasury bills in the open market. This is called Open Market Operations. It affects supply and demand for short term credit.

It seems that whatever central banks did to prevent financial crises failed since they were recurring from time to time. After the recession of 1939, there were other banking crises like the savings and loans of the 1980’s, which the US government came to their rescue by providing over $150 billion, the 2008 banking crisis where again the US government came to the rescue of the banking system, but not all and rescued many commercial banks and those that were involved in mortgages, in the savings and loans. The US did not bail out Lehman brothers, even though it was an investment bank.
These moves were to prevent a bank run and restore, or not destroy confidence in the banking system. The same happened in 2007 with Northern Rock Bank in the UK. The deposit insurance prevented a bank run.

In Basel Switzerland at a meeting of the G20, they decided what to do with bank regulations so they set a recommendation which will be gradually implemented until 2019. In fact they made so many changes that they named it Basel I, Basel II, and Basel III (2010), which is where we stand today. Base I decided to set besides reserve requirements, capital requirements. A requirement on how much capital banks should hold, in the event their risky securities go bad, and set risk weighted assets. It is clear that many banks gave out loans affluently, to satisfy political cliques. In Greece for example, many loans were given out by banks without collateral, but since the banks were(are in the process of ) recapitalization, many banks were prevented from defaulting. It was a form a a bank rescue by the Troika and as a requirement in the Memorandum signed by Greece in its bail out from default.
So the idea was to set percentage to various risky securities and the amount the bank must hold on reserves. So for example, for government bonds, they would set 0%, since there is not risk associated. For municipal bonds issued by cities, you have more risk; hence banks must hold 20% in capital requirements, while loans to businesses, 100% weight.
So risk weighted assets was the amount of capital banks must hold. In Basel III, common equity (issued by raising shares) must be 4.5%, plus 2.5% as a capital buffer, or 7%, plus another 2.5% if regulators believe it is necessary, in times of financial difficulties in raising capital like in a financial crisis. For example, Greek banks with capital investment overseas have difficulty in selling their assets to raise capital since the financial crisis has spread.
The whole idea was in predicting a bubble, avoiding a bank run. But because banks were in the business of issuing bonds, commercial paper to borrow,  and loans, and since the public is in no way capable of judging the quality of such investments, or what the banks do with the capital raised, they decided to keep a tight monitoring on them. This is the Morale Hazard problem. Having common equity would be enough to sustain a banking crisis than trying to issue new shares or selling corporate loans.